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(CNN) -- Senate leaders and the White House struck a last-minute deal to avert the feared fiscal cliff Monday night, with Vice President Joe Biden headed to the Capitol Hill to pitch the plan to fellow Democrats.
"Happy New Year," Biden, who became the Democratic point man in the talks, told reporters. "Did you think we would be here New Year's Eve?"
A senior Democratic aide told CNN that if caucus meetings went well, a Senate vote could come "within the hour." But the House of Representatives went home long before midnight, meaning nothing will get through Congress before the combination of tax increases and spending cuts lawmakers have been scrambling to head off starts to kick in, at least on paper.
A source familiar with the deal told CNN that the Senate proposal would put off the cuts for two months and keep the expiring Bush-era tax cuts for individuals earning less than $400,000 or couples earning less than $450,000. President Barack Obama has long demanded that the threshold be set at $250,000.
Tax rates on income above those levels would go back to the Clinton-era rate of 39.6%, up from the current 35%, and itemized deductions would be capped at $250,000 for individuals and $300,000 for couples. That would generate an estimated $600 billion in additional revenue over 10 years.
Taxes on inherited estates will go up to 40% from 35%, but the exemption will be indexed to rise with inflation -- a provision the source said was added at the insistence of moderate Democrats.
Unemployment insurance would be extended for a year for for 2 million people, and the alternative minimum tax -- a perennial issue -- would be permanently adjusted for inflation. Child care, tuition and research and development tax credits would be renewed. And the "Doc Fix" -- reimbursements for doctors who take Medicare patients -- will continue, but it won't be paid for out of the Obama administration's signature health care law.
Biden had been in negotiations with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, since Sunday afternoon. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, both Democrats, agreed to the plan in calls with President Barack Obama, a Democratic source said Monday night.
In the House, GOP sources said earlier Monday that there's little practical difference in settling the issue Monday night versus Tuesday. But if tax-averse House Republicans approve the bill on Tuesday -- when taxes have technically gone up -- they can argue they've voted for a tax cut to bring rates back down, even after just a few hours, GOP sources said. That could bring some more Republicans on board, one source said.
Economists warn the one-two punch of tax increases and spending cuts, known as "sequestration," could push the U.S. economy back into recession and drive unemployment back over 9% by the end of 2013. Obama had chided lawmakers for their last-minute scramble earlier Monday, hitting a nerve among several Republicans in the Senate.
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"They are close, but they're not there yet," he said. "And one thing we can count on with respect to this Congress is that if there is even one second left before you have to do what you're supposed to do, they will use that last second."
The president warned that if Republicans think they can get future deficit reduction solely through spending cuts "that will hurt seniors, or hurt students, or hurt middle-class families without asking also equivalent sacrifice from millionaires or companies with a lot of lobbyists ... they've got another thing coming."
That irked Republican senators who have been grappling for a deal with the Democratic majority in that chamber. Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tennessee, called the president's comments "very unbecoming of where we are at this moment" and added, "My heart's still pounding."
"I know the president has fun heckling Congress," Corker said. "I think he lost probably numbers of votes with what he did."
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As Monday's deadline drew nigh, federal agencies were preparing for the possibility of furloughing workers. At the Pentagon, a Defense Department official said as many as 800,000 civilian employees could be forced to take unpaid days off as the armed services face an expected $62 billion in cuts in 2013 -- about 12% of its budget.
Those workers perform support tasks across the department, from maintaining aircraft and weapons systems to processing military payrolls and counseling families. The Pentagon believes it can operate for at least two months before any furloughs are necessary, but has to warn its civilian workforce that furloughs could be coming, the official said.
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The White House budget office noted in September that sequestration was designed during the 2011 standoff over raising the federal debt ceiling as "a mechanism to force Congress to act on further deficit reduction" -- a kind of doomsday device that was never meant to be triggered. But Congress failed to substitute other cuts by the end of 2012, forcing the government to wield what the budget office called "a blunt and indiscriminate instrument."
In its place, the Senate plan would use $12 billion in new tax revenue to replace half the expected deficit reduction from the sequester and leave another $12 billion in spending cuts, split half-and-half between defense and domestic programs.
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Despite Obama's backing, one leading Senate Democrat warned a deal could run into trouble -- not only from House Republicans who have long opposed any tax increase, but also from liberals in the Senate who oppose allowing more high-income households to escape a tax increase.
"No deal is better than a bad deal, and this looks like a very bad deal the way this is shaping up," Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, said Monday morning. Late in the day, nothing had changed that would cause him to support the package.
Conservative lobbyist Grover Norquist, whose Americans for Tax Reform pushes candidates to sign a pledge never to raise taxes, said the plan "right now, as explained" would preserve most of the Bush tax cuts and wouldn't violate his group's pledge.
"Take the 84% of your winnings off the table," Norquist told CNN. "We spent 12 years getting the Democrats to cede those tax cuts to the American people. Take them off the table. Then we go back and argue about making the tax cuts permanent for everyone."
But Robert Reich, who served as labor secretary in the Clinton administration, said the $450,000 threshold "means the lion's share of the burden of deficit reduction falls on the middle class, either in terms of higher taxes down the road or fewer government services." In addition, he said, the plan does nothing to raise the federal debt ceiling just as the federal government bumps up against its borrowing limit.
And that, Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain told CNN, is likely to be "a whole new field of battle."
"We just added 2.1 trillion in the last increase in the debt ceiling, and spending continues to go up," McCain said. "I think there's going to be a pretty big showdown the next time around when we go to the debt limit."
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Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks about North Africa at the Center for Strategic & International Studies on October 12, 2012, in Washington. From her early days as a lawyer to one of the most powerful people in Washington, here's a look at Clinton at through the years:
Hillary Rodham, center, a lawyer for the Rodino Committee, and John Doar, left, chief counsel for the committee, bring impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in the Judiciary Committee hearing room at the U.S. Capitol in 1974.
Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton helps first lady Rosalynn Carter on a campaign swing through Arkansas in June 1979. Also seen is Hillary Clinton (center background).
Bill Clinton embraces his wife shortly after a stage light fell and knocked her down on January 26, 1992. They talk to Don Hewitt, producer of the CBS newsmagazine "60 Minutes."
With Hillary, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton waves to the crowd during his victory party after winning the Illinois primary on March 17, 1992.
Al Gore, from left, his wife, Tipper, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton wave to supporters at the Chautauqua Institution in Chautauqua, New York, on August 23, 1992, after they gave speeches on family values.
Clinton gestures at a campaign rally November 3, 1992, in Denver. After taking office, President Bill Clinton chose his wife to head a special commission on health care reform, the most significant public policy initiative of his first year in office.
Bill and Hillary Clinton have a laugh together on Capitol Hill in 1993.
Clinton pours herself a cup of tea during her testimony to the Senate Education and Labor Committee on health care reform in 1993.
Clinton speaks at George Washington University on September 10, 1993, in Washington, during her husband's first term.
Clinton, left, waves to the media on January 26, 1996, as she arrives at federal court in Washington for an appearance before a grand jury. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas.
Hillary Clinton looks on as President Bill Clinton addresses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room at the White House on January 26, 1998.
Hillary and Bill Clinton arrive at Foundry United Methodist Church on August 16, 1998, in Washington. He became the first sitting president to testify before a grand jury when he testified via satellite about the Monica Lewinsky matter.
Clinton shakes hands during a St. Patrick's Day parade in the Sunnyside neighborhood of Queens, New York, on March 5, 2000.
Clinton waves to the crowd as she arrives on the stage at the Democratic National Convention on August 14, 2000, at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Clinton campaigns for a Senate seat at Grand Central Station on October 25, 2000, in New York.
First lady Hillary Clinton is sworn in as a senator in a re-enactment ceremony with U,S. President Bill Clinton, from left, nephew Tyler, daughter Chelsea, brother Hugh Rodham, mother Dorothy Rodham and Vice President Al Gore in the Old Senate Chamber on Capitol Hill on January 3, 2001, in Washington.
Andrew Cuomo, from left, Eliot Spitzer and Clinton celebrate with the crowd of Democratic supporters after their wins in their various races on November 7, 2006, in New York City.
Clinton speaks during a post-primary rally on January 8, 2007, at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Hillary and Bill Clinton pay a visit to the 92nd Annual Hopkinton State Fair on September 2, 2007, in Contoocook, New Hampshire.
Clinton speaks at a fall kick-off campaign rally on September 2, 2007, in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
Clinton addresses a question during a Democratic Presidential Candidates Debate at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, on September 26, 2007.
Felipe Bravo, left, and Christian Caraballo are covered with Hillary Clinton stickers in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire, on January 8, 2008.
Clinton campaigns with her daughter, Chelsea, on January 1, 2008, in Council Bluffs, Iowa, two days ahead of the January 3 state caucus.
Sen. Clinton waves as she speaks to supporters at the National Building Museum on June 7, 2008, in Washington. Clinton thanked her supporters and urged them to back Sen. Barack Obama to be the next president of the United States.
Barack Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a Unity Rally in Unity, New Hampshire, on June 27, 2008.
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama watches Sen. Hillary Clinton address the Democrate National Convention at a Democratic supporters' group in Billings, Montana, on August 26, 2008. The two endured a long, heated contest for the 2008 nomination.
Sen. Charles Schumer, left, looks toward Secretary of State designate Clinton as committee chairman Sen. John Kerry, center, looks on during nomination hearings on January 13, 2009, on Capitol Hill.
Clinton testifies during her confirmation hearing for secretary of state before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Capitol Hill on January 13, 2009, in Washington.
Clinton dances with a local choir as while visiting the Victoria Mxenge Housing Project in Philippi on the outskirts of Cape Town, Souith Africa, on August 8, 2009.
Clinton looks through binoculars toward North Korea during a visit to observation post Ouellette at the Demilitarized Zone seperating the two Koreas in Panmunjon on July 21, 2010.
Clinton walks up the steps to her aircraft at sunset as she leaves an ASEAN meeting July 23, 2010, in Hanoi, Vietnam.
From left: Marc Mezvinsky, Hillary Clinton, Chelsea Clinton and Bill Clinton pose during the wedding of the young couple at the Astor Courts Estate on July 31, 2010, in Rhinebeck, New York.
U.S. President Barack Obama and Clinton hold a moment of silence before a NATO meeting on November 19, 2010, in Lisbon, Portugal.
Clinton listens as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (not in picture) makes a brief statement before a bilateral meeting at the State Department in Washington on November 29, 2010.
Clinton shakes hands with a child during an unannounced walk through Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, on March 16, 2011.
President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Clinton and members of the national security team receive an update on the mission against Osama bin Laden in the Situation Room of the White House on May 1, 2011.
Clinton checks her PDA upon departure in a military C-17 plane from Malta bound for Tripoli, Libya, on October 18, 2011.
Clinton speaks as Hamid Karzai, president of Afghanistan, listens during a news conference at the presidential palace in Kabul on July 7.
Clinton arrives at Ben Gurion International Airport on July 15, in Lod, outside Tel Aviv, Israel. Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years Hillary Clinton through the years HIDE CAPTION << <
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