Why were mudslide warnings ignored?

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Daniel Miller predicted possible catastrophic mudslide in Washington 15 years ago Miller: Engineers tried to shore up site and offered to buy out homeowners in danger Miller: Despite warnings, construction went on; some didn't realize there was a risk He says assessments of danger should be readily available to potential homeowners

Editor's note: Daniel Miller is the co-owner of M2 Environmental Services and co-founder of Earth Systems Institute and TerrainWorks. The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author.

(CNN) -- I am a geomorphologist: a scientist fascinated by the interactions of storms, floods, fires and landslides. We humans may feel a bit above that fray -- we refer to the "natural environment" as though it were a separate thing. Yet, as a landslide near Oso, Washington, tragically highlighted on Saturday, we remain subject to the forces of nature like all the rest of Earth's creatures.

At the latest count, 27 people are confirmed dead and 22 are still missing. A painful part of the natural order of things.

Daniel Miller Daniel Miller

Unlike those other inhabitants of Earth, however, we know something of how things work. This, too, was highlighted last week, when the Seattle Times reported on a study I did 15 years ago, one of many for the Hazel site, which had experienced recurring landslides. In that study, conducted for the Army Corps of Engineers, I had written of the possibility of a "large catastrophic failure" based on numerical analyses that indicated potential instability of a huge mass of material above the zone of previous landslides. As a scientist, I knew that material would someday be on the valley floor.

As intended, that report guided further work. Tracy Drury, an engineer who reported on the site for the Army Corps of Engineers, was also clear that "catastrophic failure potential places human lives and property at risk." He came up with designs to shore up the slope. Those designs were put in place; everything was done that could be done to minimize the potential of a future landslide.

A pleasant rural neighborhood, Steelhead Haven, sat directly across the river from the site. Drury's most relevant design to protect lives was to try to buy up the properties and move people away. There were meetings to discuss these ideas, but nothing came of them.

I wasn't involved in the discussions, but I did attend a community meeting to discuss my analyses -- after a landslide in 2006 felled trees and crashed into the North Fork of the Stillaguamish River across the valley into the edge of Steelhead Haven. One response to my presentation, I was told, was that I was there to take their land.

Construction of new homes continued, even after 2006. In some cases, people were informed of the risk, but didn't trust the messenger, or decided it was an acceptable risk. I learned that some people were unaware that they lived across the river from an active landslide.

Revised number of missing in Washington Response to landslide is 'very humbling' Family finds dog amid landslide rubble

I've been asked, "Where does responsibility lie?" The cast is large. Homeowners choose to live in beautiful, but dangerous, places. Contractors and developers then build those homes, Realtors sell them, bankers finance them, local officials grant permits, governments set zoning rules, and voters elect the officials who make those rules.

At every step, those decisions need to be made from positions of knowledge and understanding of the potential consequences. Then who is responsible to ensure that scientific findings are disseminated and clearly understood? The scientists? The government? The media?

We cannot help those lost at Oso, but we can look to do better in the future. This is not the last landslide, flood, fire, hurricane, earthquake, tsunami, drought, tornado, or any of a long list of threatening events that we face. Scientists work hard to understand these processes; we need to ensure that everyone makes decisions fully aware of the potential consequences of their actions.

We have work to do. I'm getting calls from concerned homeowners wanting to know where to get information. It's not easy to find. Landslide hazards have not been systematically mapped across the state, much less the country. Where work has been done, maps are hard to find. If found, they are difficult to interpret.

Many local, state and federal agencies are working to improve this situation, but progress is slow and funding is tight. Mapping hazards is not a national priority. Yet it seems that, if my smartphone can tell me how to drive to the nearest coffee shop, it should be able to tell me what's known about the hazards where I'm standing. We have the technology; we need the public interest to drive the required investment.

Like most scientists, I toil in obscurity to make my small contribution. Maybe we scientists are missing the point. The problem with toiling in obscurity is that no one hears us. We need better special effects. Getting our messages across can save lives, although it will involve getting houses off flood plains, coastal bluffs and debris-flow fans. In general, folks don't appreciate having a scientist, or government official, suggest they move. Perhaps there is another approach. It took a massive information campaign to dramatically cut consumption of cancer-causing cigarettes, surely we can motivate people to examine the facts in this case and do things that are ultimately good for all of us.

In 1997, a colleague and I co-founded a small not-for-profit institute seeking to provide land managers with the data and tools they need to make informed decisions. We both had young children; we saw it as a way to help ensure their generation would have something worth managing. That's gone well, but our targeted audience is too small and public funding too limited. To really change things, everyone should have the tools and data to make informed decisions, and use them.

For that to happen, these tools need to be as cool and easy to use as the latest smartphone app; lives depend on it.

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Las Vegas made bad bet on casinos

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Nevada senator says his state is "nowhere close to a normal economy" David Frum: The state made a big bet on the lavish casinos of Las Vegas Since the recession, crowds at the casinos have fallen off, hurting job market, he says Frum: Families that benefited from refinancing their mortgages have had to cut back

Editor's note: David Frum, a CNN contributor, is a contributing editor at The Daily Beast. He is the author of eight books, including a new novel, "Patriots," and a post-election e-book, "Why Romney Lost." Frum was a special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

(CNN) -- The expensive casinos of Las Vegas look crowded. Tickets to the popular shows sell out. To the tourist, things look back to normal.

Yet as the state's junior U.S. senator lamented in February, "I can tell you right now Nevada is nowhere close to a normal economy." Nevada's unemployment remains the second-highest in the nation, nearly 9%. The housing market there still languishes. New Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged to Nevada Republican Sen. Dean Heller that full recovery for Nevada glimmers "years away."

Nevada's troubles are more than a local concern. They reveal something important about the condition of the whole U.S. economy.

David Frum David Frum

Nevada makes its living from tourism, the state's most important industry, and the tourists come -- or came -- for the casinos. Before 1990, the state of Nevada and Atlantic City, New Jersey, enjoyed something close to a monopoly on the casino industry.

As more states legalized casinos, the Nevada casino industry -- and especially the Las Vegas industry -- responded by moving up-market. Dazzling theme hotels housed lavish theatrical shows and outstanding restaurants. Las Vegas, once a rather seedy place, repositioned itself as a center of glamorous entertainment.

Building the new hotels generated jobs. The people who worked in the hotels needed places to live, and building those homes generated more jobs. All that construction shaped an unusual local economy: Here was a state with low average educational attainments (only about 22% of Nevadans have a college degree, 45th in the nation), yet a median income higher than the national average.

.cnnArticleGalleryNav{border:1px solid #000;cursor:pointer;float:left;height:25px;text-align:center;width:25px} .cnnArticleGalleryNavOn{background-color:#C03;border:1px solid #000;float:left;height:25px;text-align:center;width:20px} .cnnArticleGalleryNavDisabled{background-color:#222;border:1px solid #000;color:#666;float:left;height:25px;text-align:center;width:25px} .cnnArticleExpandableTarget{background-color:#000;display:none;position:absolute} .cnnArticlePhotoContainer{height:122px;width:214px} .cnnArticleBoxImage{cursor:pointer;height:122px;padding-top:0;width:214px} .cnnArticleGalleryCaptionControl{background-color:#000;color:#FFF} .cnnArticleGalleryCaptionControlText{cursor:pointer;float:right;font-size:10px;padding:3px 10px 3px 3px} .cnnArticleGalleryPhotoContainer cite{background:none repeat scroll 0 0 #000;bottom:48px;color:#FFF;height:auto;left:420px;opacity:.7;position:absolute;width:200px;padding:10px} .cnnArticleGalleryClose{background-color:#fff;display:block;text-align:right} .cnnArticleGalleryCloseButton{cursor:pointer} .cnnArticleGalleryNavPrevNext span{background-color:#444;color:#CCC;cursor:pointer;float:left;height:23px;text-align:center;width:26px;padding:4px 0 0} .cnnArticleGalleryNavPrevNextDisabled span{background-color:#444;color:#666;float:left;height:23px;text-align:center;width:25px;padding:4px 0 0} .cnnVerticalGalleryPhoto{padding-right:68px;width:270px;margin:0 auto} .cnnGalleryContainer{float:left;clear:left;margin:0 0 20px;padding:0 0 0 10px} The Barrymore is pure, old-school cinematic Vegas, with handmade wallpaper, blue-tufted booths, and a ceiling lined with antique movie reels. The Barrymore is pure, old-school cinematic Vegas, with handmade wallpaper, blue-tufted booths, and a ceiling lined with antique movie reels. The $42 million museum was created by the same team that designed the International Spy Museum in Washington, D.C. and has part of the bullet-ridden wall from the St. Valentine's Day Massacre. Inhale one of the Tomahawk Steaks, a 35-day aged, 35-ounce prime steak of Flintstone's proportions, and you'll realize this isn't just another Las Vegas steakhouse. Nevada State Museum's new $50 million building will feature a 43-foot-long ichthyosaur. This $450 million performing arts center designed by David M. Schwarz will bring the likes of the Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater and The Cleveland Orchestra to Las Vegas. The Barrymore The Mob Museum 35 Steaks + Martinis Nevada State Museum The Smith Center for the Performing Arts HIDE CAPTION << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> Las Vegas\'s best new attractions Las Vegas's best new attractions

Nevada's blue-collar prosperity was built on a faulty premise. All those glitzy Las Vegas hotels and resorts, containing typically up to 5,000 rooms each, depended on a huge influx of high-spending visitors.

So long as homeowners could pay for vacations with some of the proceeds of their home refinancings, all was well. But when the refi boom stopped, Las Vegas suddenly discovered it had built a destination too expensive for its customer base. Everything else going on in the city -- the jobs in the hotels, the homes for the people who worked in the hotels, the malls where those people shopped, the homes for the people who worked in the malls -- all that crashed around Las Vegas' ears.

And now, six years after the crash, it's hard to see a way forward from the disaster.

Nationwide, the casino industry has more or less recovered from the recession. Americans left behind $37.34 billion in casinos in 2012, only a shade below the 2007 peak of $37.52 billion. But they are spending that money in casinos closer to home. Gross revenues of Nevada casinos languish 20% below their 2007 peaks. Because of the higher cost of Las Vegas-style amenities, a 20% drop in revenues translates into a 50% drop in profitability.

So even as the industry nears recovery, the promise of a middle-class economy supported by gambling revenues has proven a mirage. Casino employment dropped in Nevada between 2012 and 2013. These were the best casino jobs in the country, which explains why total national casino wages lag 7% behind the 2007 peak even as industry revenues have nearly caught up to the 2007 level.

Nor is there much likelihood of any early return to the old ways. Americans have grown cautious about gambling. While only about 14% of Americans express a consistent moral disapproval of gambling, according to industry surveys, there has been a sharp increase in the proportion who reject gambling for themselves personally: 27% in 2004, 38% today. Unsurprisingly, 2008 was the year of the biggest change of national mind on this subject.

Meanwhile, those who do gamble are gambling in new ways that don't support the style of industry for which Las Vegas is famous. Younger gamblers are attracted to online forms of gambling, which create jobs only for computer programmers. Older gamblers increasingly prefer bare-bones casinos that offer free transportation and cheaper meals.

Las Vegas' opulent palaces for the affluent gambler seem increasingly unsupportable in a country where more and more people have less and less disposable income. That's a social trend that should concern us all, however we feel about this particular pastime.

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Wedding ring found decades later

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Ring found in backyard after 40 years - CNN.com Video

Russia's euphoria won't last

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President Vladimir Putin's domestic popularity has boosted, writes David Satter Starting a war to solve a domestic problem is now a Russian tradition, he says Satter: Russia's businessmen depend on the West because of lawlessness in Russia The impending economic crisis is a potential threat to Putin's political base, he writes

Oh, baby: New pic of Prince George

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Britain's Prince William and Kate have released the third official portrait of Prince George The photo shows George with his parents at their London residence, Kensington Palace The 8-month-old is traveling with his parents to New Zealand and Australia in April It is unclear which of their engagements he will be present at during their tour